Climate models

Can climate models handle today’s extremes?


According to the US Drought Monitor, almost 4% of the state is now considered to be in extreme drought, which is the first time that part of the MN has experienced extreme drought since April 2013. 52% of the State is in severe drought, which is up from nearly 40% last year. Moderate drought covers much of the state and the Twin Cities.

It has been a hot and dry year so far, with much below average rainfall across much of the region. Here is the average precipitation since January 1, which shows several areas several inches below average.

The weather forecast for the Twin Cities on Sunday again shows dry and hot conditions in place. However, several forest fires burning in Canada and the western United States will create smoke / haze conditions near us. Look for red / orange sunrises and sunsets over the next few days.

Meteograms for Minneapolis on Sunday will be hot again with highs warming in the mid-1980s with a hazy sun in place. Winds will be southerly at around 5 to 15 mph.

Weather forecast for the region on Sunday shows dry and mild weather across much of the region with highs warming in the upper 80s and 90s, which will be near + 5F to + 15F above average with a smoky / hazy sun.

The extended weather forecast for Minneapolis shows temperatures to warm again above average levels for several days until next week. Keep in mind that we’ve already had (14) 90 degree days in the Twin Cities so far this year, so we’ll probably be adding a few more days over the next 5-7 days.

Here is the extended weather forecast for next week, which shows a few isolated showers and storms in parts of the region. It doesn’t look like anything is very prevalent, but locally there will still be heavy pockets of rain in a few places.

Here’s the potential for precipitation through 7 p.m. Monday in the Midwest, which shows areas of rain across the plains, the central part of the country, and parts of the Ohio Valley. However, much of the Upper Midwest will be dry.

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8- to 14-day temperature forecast shows warmer-than-average temperatures continuing across much of the northern part of the country. Meanwhile, temperatures in the northeast and southwest will be cooler than average.

Are we in a climate emergency? If you don’t believe the scientists, do you believe your own eyes? We’ve always had extremes, but a 121F capable heat dome in BC and staggering flooding across Europe amazes meteorologists.

New times may require new tools. The “average weather” is changing – many Americans today don’t even realize they now live in a (new) floodplain. Drought, fires and water shortages in the West are impacting jobs and economic growth, as symptoms of warming accelerate.

Some scientists worry that current climate models may not even be able to track a proliferation of extreme events. Expect to see things you haven’t seen before.

Heatwaves will break off the last drop of smoldering air over the Rockies and the western United States, giving us a series of 90s this week. Thunder could rumble on Tuesday, again Saturday, but no widespread relief from the drought is likely anytime soon.

Wet ones become more and more humid. The dry ones are getting drier and drier. I miss the average.

SUNDAY: Hazy and smoky sun. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 87.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Usually clear and calm. Winds: SE 5. Minimum: 67.

MONDAY: Blue sky, very hot. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 90.

TUESDAY: A little sun, possible stray T storm. Winds: NW 5-10. Alarm clock: 70. High: 91.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, still sultry. Winds: SW 8-13. Alarm clock: 71. High: 90.

THURSDAY: Sunny and windy. Winds: NE 10-20. Awakening: 62. High: 92.

FRIDAY: Hot sun, slight drop in humidity. Winds: SE 10-15. Awakening: 67. High: 91.

SATURDAY: Few showers and thunderstorms. Winds: SW 10-15. Alarm clock: 70. High: 89.

July 18

2003: At least eleven tornadoes have hit Minnesota. Baseball-sized hail has been reported in Indus, Koochiching County.

1936: The all-time record is reported in the Twin Cities, with 108 degrees at the downtown Minneapolis office. 71 people would die in the Twin Cities that day due to the extreme heat.

1916: Heavy showers in New Ulm dump over seven inches of rain in seven hours.

July 18

High average: 84 F (Record: 101 F established in 1940)

Low average: 64F (Record: 49F established in 1873)

Precipitation record: 2.94 “established in 1895

July 18

Sunrise: 5:44 a.m.

Sunset: 8:54 p.m.

Daylight hours: ~ 15 hours and 10 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 47 seconds

Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20): ~ 27 minutes

2.1 Before the first quarter moon

See more from Space.com HERE:

“July is a great time of year to learn to recognize the constellation Scorpio the Scorpio. If you’re in the city – without a dark sky – you probably won’t see the entire constellation. But you can still see the star that represents the Heart of Scorpio, a bright red star called Antares. Our graph shows the nights of July 19, 20 and 21, 2021, when the moon will approach this star and then pass it. Watch the moon these nights! Despite its brilliance, the red color of Antares could be noticeable. Once the moon leaves the evening sky and you have a dark sky, you can easily see the graceful shape of the constellation Scorpio of Antares. The constellation is shaped like J. From the northern hemisphere, the lower half of Scorpius – the curved part of the J – is close to the southern horizon when Scorpius is highest in the sky, as is the case with July evenings. “

See more of Earth Sky HERE:

Sunday’s weather forecast shows warm temperatures in place in the high plains and western inter-mountain, while temperatures also and east of the Rockies will be near or cooler than average.

National weather forecasts for the remainder of the weekend and early next week keep most of the unstable weather conditions in the southern part of the country with locally abundant pockets of rain.

According to the NOAA Weather Forecast Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be possible in parts of the southern United States. There will also be areas of heavy rain in the southwest desert where monsoon storms develop, but much of the western United States will remain hot and dry.

“The black smoke that blanketed northern California from the 2018 camp fire contained extreme levels of lead and other toxic metals, according to a new study by the state air regulator. As summer wildfires hit the drought-stricken western United States, the new findings sound the alarm bells about the risk of unanticipated health impacts such as cancer and learning deficits. Parts of California, such as the city of Chico, saw lead concentrations briefly reach 50 times the average level, according to the California Air Resources Board study. “This report makes it clear that smoke from wildfires poses a real threat to the health of not only people living and working near these fires, but also anyone affected by the smoke as they travel through California and beyond. beyond, ”said Richard Corey, chief executive of the agency. , in a press release. “

See more from Bloomberg HERE:

  • The latest in a series of severe heat waves to hit the west continues on Monday, although conditions are unlikely to be as extreme as they were over the weekend. The big picture: The heat, combined with increasing drought and lightning, has ignited more than a million acres of land in California, Oregon, Washington and Canada, with smoke obscuring the skies for thousands of miles. In numbers : Another in a series of strong areas of high pressure, colloquially known as “thermal domes”, has settled across the west. While not as strong as the event in late June and early July, it still led to record high temperatures. 107.7 ° F: Hottest Daily Low Temperature registered for the United States, established Sunday in Stovepipe Wells, Calif. 117 ° F: All-time high temperature record at McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas, which was tied on Saturday, by a National Meteorological Service declaration. 107 ° F: All-time high temperature record set on July 9 in Grand Junction, Colorado, where the archives date from 1893. 150,812 acresSize of the Bootleg fire in Oregon on Sunday, after the blaze doubled in size for three consecutive days. The blaze was expected to experience “extreme” growth rates as temperatures rose on Sunday afternoon. 4000 acresSize of rapidly growing river fire in Mariposa and Madera counties in Calif., Forcing evacuations on Sunday evening. Threat level: On Sunday, Canada’s Interagency Forest Fire Center raised its preparedness level to 5 – the top of the scale, noting that “active agencies can take emergency action to support incident operations. “.

See more Axios HERE:

The entire American coastline is threatened by the lunar cycle and climate change. Climate change has already increased the frequency and severity of hurricanes and other extreme weather events around the world. – But there’s a smaller, less splashing threat on the horizon that could wreak havoc on America’s shores. High tide flooding, also known as ‘nuisance flooding’, occurs in coastal areas when the tides reach about 0.6 meters above the daily average high tide and begin to flood streets or seep into them. storm sewers. True to their nickname, these floods are more of a nuisance than outright calamity, inundating streets and homes, forcing businesses to shut down and causing sumps to overflow – but the longer they last, the more damage they can cause. The United States experienced more than 600 of these floods in 2019, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But now, a new study by NASA warns that harmful flooding will become much more frequent in the United States by the 2030s, with the majority of the American coastline expected to experience three to four times as many flood days at high tide. every year for at least a decade.

See more of Live Science HERE:

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