Climate models

Latest climate models should not increase projections of future warming

A notable scenario in the climate system over the past two years has been the effort to make sense of the latest generation of climate models. In support of the upcoming report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate models have submitted their simulations to the latest database, known as CMIP6. These […]

Climate models

What COVID forecasters can learn from climate models

A second national lockdown began in England on November 5.Credit: Hollie Adams / AFP / Getty Epidemiologists predicting the spread of COVID-19 should adopt climate modeling methods to make predictions more reliable, say computer scientists who have spent months auditing one of the pandemic’s most influential models. In a study that was uploaded to the […]

Climate models

The past is the key to predicting the future climate – Models should be tested by simulating past climates

Past carbon dioxide concentrations (left) versus possible future emission scenarios (right): the rate of current emissions is much faster – occurring over decades – unlike geological changes, which occur over millions of years. If emissions continue unabated, carbon dioxide levels could reach or exceed values ​​associated with warm climates of the past, such as the […]

Climate models

Polar ice, atmospheric water vapor, the main drivers of variation among climate models

Credit: CC0 Public Domain A Florida State University researcher is part of a team that found that various projections of global warming trends advanced by climate change scientists can be explained by the models’ different predictions of ice loss and vapor. atmospheric water. The work will help climatologists reconcile various models to improve their accuracy, […]

Climate models

Clouds could be the missing link in climate models

Scientists have been trying to figure out why the latest generation of climate models predict a much hotter future than previously thought. The main culprit could be clouds, according to a new article published on June 24 in Scientists progress (1). Every few years, a more advanced generation of climate models emerges. In the latest […]

Climate models

Increased warming in latest generation of climate models likely caused by clouds

Credit: CC0 Public Domain As scientists scramble to determine why some of the latest climate models suggest the future may be hotter than previously thought, a new study says the reason is likely related to challenges simulating training and cloud evolution. The new research, published in Scientists progress, provides an overview of 39 updated models […]

Climate models

Latest climate models show more intense droughts to come

The Maranoa River south of Mitchell, Queensland during the 2017 drought. Credit: Chris Fithall (Flickr Creative Commons CC BY 2.0) An analysis of new climate model projections by Australian researchers at the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes shows South West Australia and parts of South Australia will experience longer and more intense droughts […]

Climate models

How hot will it be this century? The latest climate models suggest it could be worse than we thought

Climatologists use mathematical models to project Earth’s future in a warming world, but a group of latest models included surprisingly high values ​​for a measure called “climate sensitivity.” Climate sensitivity refers to the relationship between changes in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and warming. High values ​​are a bad surprise. If they’re right, that means […]