New Mexico water test predicts worsening climate change impacts

Climate change could lead to worsening water scarcity in New Mexico, and state officials hope they can plan for hotter, drier decades.

Earlier this month, state officials led by the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources and the Interstate Creek Commission released a draft analysis as part of its plan on the water over 50 years, aimed at identifying impacts on the state’s water supply and strategies to conserve and maintain resources.

Along with the draft’s publication on September 16, the state opened a public comment period to solicit public comments on the report, with October 15 being the deadline for comments submitted.

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The report compiled existing research on New Mexico’s future climate change impacts on its water resources, intended to provide a basis for future water planning by agencies across the state.

It is in response to a directive from Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham that the state is finding ways to ensure the sustainability of its water resources for the next half century.

“The guiding principle is that the state chart a course that will allow more flexibility in the management of water supplies and infrastructure in the face of extreme weather conditions brought on by a changing climate,” reads the announcement from the Bureau of the publication of the draft plan.

“The governor has long recognized the importance of water to the arid state. As the Governor pointed out, the pillars of the Five-Year Water Plan are stewardship, equity and sustainability.

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Here are the key takeaways from the State’s 50-Year Water Report.

The future: warmer and drier

New Mexico has shown a “clear and pronounced” warming trend, according to the report, resulting in decades of drought.

While the report admitted some shortcomings and unpredictability in precipitation, it signaled with “certainty” that temperatures would rise.

The report predicted that spring would become increasingly drier, potentially pushing back the summer monsoon on which the state relies for much of its moisture.

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Less humidity could also mean smaller accumulations of snow in the mountains of northern New Mexico, which melt and feed rivers statewide, as well as drier soil and vegetation leading to wildfires. Forest.

“Evidence derived from the model’s projections suggests a high probability of a continuous increase in temperature associated with pronounced variability in precipitation,” the report says. “Episodic droughts, when they do occur, will become much more severe as temperatures rise. “

To mitigate the expected increasing aridity in New Mexico, the report says government policy changes are needed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions known to impact climate change.

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“New Mexico is expected to become hotter and more arid over the next 50 years, due to man-made climate change,” the report said.

“A strong and long-standing scientific consensus from these reports indicates that New Mexico should forecast a warmer and more arid climate, with a rate of change dependent on global policy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. tight. “

Climate change will impact New Mexico’s ‘water balance’

Water for human consumption in New Mexico comes exclusively from precipitation and snowfall, the report says, which means more arid conditions could reduce availability to people for necessary purposes such as recreational uses. and industrial.

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About 95 million acre-feet per year comes from precipitation such as rain, according to the report, while about 96 percent or about 92 million acre-feet is lost through evaporation or released by vegetation via a process. known as sweating.

This means that only about 3.4%, about 3.2 million acres of feet are left on the surface as runoff or to recharge aquifers and rivers.

Surface water supplies will become increasingly sensitive to climate change due to the small portion of its available water that remains.

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“Small changes in the water balance of the earth’s surface can therefore have a major impact on human society,” the report says.

Continuing changes in New Mexico’s climate could impact vegetation

More frequent forest deaths and intensifying wildfires have been sparked recently by changes in New Mexico’s climate as it moves to warmer and drier conditions, the report says.

Changes in vegetation can impact ecosystems and hydrology statewide, read the report, causing changes in the water available to people in every region of New Mexico.

Available water, temperature and sunshine were the main factors defined in the report that impact vegetation productivity.

“The ongoing regional climate change towards warmer temperatures and more severe droughts therefore threatens vegetation types sensitive to warmer and drier conditions,” the report said.

Adrian Hedden can be reached at 575-618-7631, [email protected] or @AdrianHedden on Twitter.


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Lorde’s ‘Golden Microphone’ Boosts Climate Change Efforts

Lorde was recognized at Varietyof the Power of Women event for her efforts on behalf of 350 Aotearoa, an organization “whose commitment to end fossil fuel projects here is truly inspiring,” she commented.

Featured by Hunter Schafer, the model, LGBTQ advocate and star of HBO’s ‘Euphoria’, who said, “Over the past year, Lorde has used her powerful words, sounds and presence to promote the environment and raise awareness of the growing problem of climate currency. For many of us young people, this is the crucial question of our time. How can we protect our planet and make it a safe place not only for us, but for our children and their children? How can we make these changes in the face of wasted time? “

Lorde then gave a thoughtful and forward-looking speech, recalling how she came to be famous and what she does with the ‘golden microphone’ she received to help make the world a better place.

Lorde isn’t the type to talk without walking, and that’s exactly what she did when, for her latest album, “Solar Power”, she resisted the release of a CD, demonstrating her commitment. to slow the rate of climate change. In fact, the project is a sonic love letter to the natural world. As she puts it on her Power of Women cover: “The purity of being outside was really magical to me,” Lorde says. “I felt like all the answers were there, like I could be healed by the natural world.”

Read Lorde’s speech in full below:

I’m sure many of you in this room have come by your power in a way that seemed fortuitous – in the right place at the right time; a cocktail of privilege, skill and luck. You didn’t go looking for it, rather it was something that happened to you. Maybe you know my story – I was one of the millions of kids who posted stuff online from their childhood rooms, trying to impress their friends, when one day something crazy happened. product – I was given a gold megaphone. This megaphone increased my voice tenfold, so that it was not only heard by people I knew. Suddenly, the journalists of the major publications could hear my voice, which always came from my room in the depths of the world. Artists I had admired for years, they could hear me. Hundreds of thousands of children around the world, my megaphone has worked on it. Enough people have decided: what you say is interesting, and we want to keep hearing you say it. At sixteen, I was given power. Eight years later, I have enough social media followers to populate a small country. I was given a golden megaphone, and it’s here to stay.

Last month I released a 5 song track for my album Solar Power, sung in te reo maori, the indigenous language of Aotearoa in New Zealand. It was a hugely meaningful endeavor to me and my associates – it felt right to use my voice to support those who work to keep our beautiful Indigenous language alive. This choice, to sing in te reo Maori, was the subject of a vigorous speech: is this rich and famous white woman favorable or symbolic? Does she defend or co-opt for her own social gain? Is it fair to express a language that is not yours, without ever having to experience the pain and struggle that historically accompanies that language? What does it mean when someone who has never had to fight to be heard, to have their power recognized, stands alongside those who have, who do?

I welcome this speech. A power like mine must be questioned. Over the past few years, we have all seen that no power system is too big to fail, no leader too established to uproot. By having these conversations as a society, about what makes us feel alive or asleep, supported or suppressed, we move forward. And maybe it’s stinging when you’re the one whose power is discussed in this way. But it’s not about you.

When we talk about power, amplification with a single voice, we must also recognize those who do not have such amplification. Tonight I think of the women whose birthplace or skin color or socioeconomic status were always going to make it less likely to be handed a megaphone. Or the women climate change will affect long before it affects me. People like me are elected, whether by ballot, by vote of the board of directors or by Instagram. Accepting that your power is directly correlated with the lack of others is crucial to understanding and contextualizing what you are capable of.

We need to view power in this way in order to thoughtfully represent the people who decide every day that our voices matter.

I did not ask for the golden megaphone, not in so many words. But it’s in my hands now, and handling it with care and context is the challenge that excites me the most these days. That’s why I was delighted to highlight an organization like 350 Aotearoa; not just because I support their campaign for Fossil Fuel Free Schools, but because one of their stated goals is to prioritize partnering with Maori in all of their climate-related decision-making.

Be gracious with your power. Do not over tighten or handle it unfairly. Be open to criticism and discussion of what you stand for. It helps everyone to move forward.

I’m going to paraphrase the great Maggie Nelson here: “The form of power changes and travels. Letting go of a calcified conviction of what and where power is and how it moves can be a crucial element in spurring its redistribution. Recognizing and feeling the power we have, let alone analyzing our own will, invites us to investigate what we want to do.

I know what I want to do with the megaphone in my hand and I will do my best to act on it. I invite you, I implore you in fact, to stick to it.


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Experts: To curb climate change, get the rich to adopt reforms

September 30 (UPI) – The rich have a larger carbon footprint than their affluent neighbors, several studies have confirmed.

According to new research, published Thursday in the journal Nature Energy, they also have a greater ability to effect change.

For the new study, scientists have identified five ways rich and well-connected people disproportionately impact global greenhouse gas emissions.

Because those with higher socioeconomic status bear greater responsibility for warming trends and have greater potential to precipitate progress, the authors of the new study insist that it is imperative that governments and policymakers are finding ways to motivate behavior change among the upper echelons of society.

To identify people with high socioeconomic status, researchers looked at more than just a person’s paycheck. They also took into account a person’s profession, social status and social network.

“People of high socioeconomic status are not just those with more money, but those with stronger social networks,” said lead author Kristian Nielsen in a press release.

“Their connections can enable them to influence behaviors and policies to help mitigate climate change – and we need to find ways to encourage them to do so,” said Nielson, psychologist and postdoctoral researcher at Cambridge University. .

The carbon footprint of the richest people is mainly inflated by their consumption and travel habits.

Studies have shown that per capita energy consumption in wealthier neighborhoods is significantly higher. Recent research also suggests that only 1% of the world’s population is responsible for 50% of greenhouse gas emissions from air transport.

People with high socioeconomic status have the potential to effect change outside of their role as consumers, the researchers say in the new study.

“People of higher socioeconomic status could also serve as role models, making more climate-friendly choices that influence others – for example driving electric cars or following a vegan diet,” Nielsen said. “You don’t need a huge income to be a model, you just need to be well connected.”

In addition to implementing changes through their roles as consumers and role models, wealthy people can invest in climate mitigation technologies, directing capital to solar and other forms of energy. own.

Rich people can use more than money. They can also use their positions of power to influence companies’ purchasing decisions, as well as their large social networks to organize progress.

“Our study focused on people of high socioeconomic status, as they have generated many problems of fossil fuel dependence and associated climate change, which are affecting the rest of humanity,” Nielsen said.

“And they’re also in a good position to do something,” Nielsen said.


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Bjorn Lomborg: Blaming deadly floods and wildfires on climate change comes in handy for politicians

The media pay disproportionate attention to plane crashes, but just reporting many stories of plane crashes does not provide a good insight into transportation safety. You need statistics to realize that planes are much safer than cars.

Alarmist climate reports are now causing the same problem with ever-proliferating stories of extreme heat waves, floods and fires. This storm of appalling tragedy argues that uncontrollable climate change is now causing ever more deadly calamities.

Yet this narrative is contradicted by the data.

One of the most documented impacts of global warming is rising temperature extremes, which made headlines around the world this summer. Although rarely reported, the new report from the United Nations Climate Panel also tells us that “the frequency and intensity of extreme cold has decreased.” This is important because, in the world, more than 4.5 million people die of the cold against less than 600,000 of the heat.

A new study published in the medical journal The Lancet shows that the rise in temperature over the past two decades in the United States and Canada means 7,200 more heat deaths each year, far more than the 624 widely reported deaths due to the thermal dome this summer. But the study also shows that warming means we prevent 21,000 cold deaths each year. We are misinformed if we do not hear both sides of this story.

READ MORE: Don’t Buy Misfortune – We Can Always Change This Climate Pathway

The tragic floods in Germany and Belgium are also blamed on climate change. But the data does not support that river floods have increased. Globally, a large study of over 9,000 rivers shows that while some rivers are experiencing increasing flood trends, many other rivers are seeing decreasing flood trends. This is also true in Europe, where the new report by the United Nations Climate Panel studies all rivers and finds that most are less flooded.

Stories of rivers still overflowing will inevitably dominate, but that doesn’t help us understand the big picture. Most of the German flood deaths occurred on the Ahr River. Although it experienced a very high flow on July 14, 2021, it was still much lower than the flows of 1804 and 1910. What matters most to river flooding is that more and more people are building on them. flood plains, leaving water nowhere to go. This highlights the need for a well-functioning warning system.

Here, Germany has failed dramatically. Since the last deadly floods in 2002, Germany has put in place an extensive warning system, but last September, on a “national alert” day, most warning measures failed. worked. The models warned of flooding up to nine days in advance, but most people weren’t aware of it. The hydrologist who set up the European flood awareness system called it a “monumental fault of the system”.

But, of course, blaming the deadly floods on climate change comes in handy for the politicians who were responsible for the missing early warnings.

READ MORE: Carbon offsetting. If this sounds like an illusion, it is

Likewise, fires in the United States are often attributed to the climate, but the real reason is mainly poor forest management. And overall, the U.S. government’s own statistics belies the hype: The area burned in 2021 to date is the seventh lowest in 20 years. In 2020, only 11% of the annual area burned compared to the early 1900s. Contrary to climate clichés, the area burned globally has decreased considerably since 1900 and continues to decline in the age of satellites.

The world is big, and with cameras everywhere, there is a torrent of new fires, heatwaves and floods vying for attention every day. Websites are gaining clicks, politicians waving their virtue, and climate activists are raising money through these calamities. But just like plane crashes, a constant stream of bad news doesn’t inform well.

We have death statistics around the world from all climate related weather disasters such as floods, droughts, storms and fires from the International Disaster Database. In the 1920s, these disasters killed on average nearly half a million people each year.

The current climate alarm narrative would suggest that climate-caused disasters are deadlier, but this is not true. Over the past century, the number of climate-related deaths has fallen by 96% to around 18,000 deaths in an average year. Because the world’s population quadrupled, the global risk of climate-related death in the 2010s fell by more than 99%.

This does not deny that climate change is a real problem that we need to solve smartly. But contrary to the current narrative, our adaptability is far greater than changing climate risks.

Look at 2021, which seems to be the year of climate disasters. Add the 624 deaths from the North American thermal dome, the 358 deaths from flooding in Germany and Belgium, the 559 deaths from Indian climate disasters you may not have even heard of and an additional 1,378 deaths over 200 other disasters. Adjusted to a full year, and climate-related weather disasters are likely to cause around 6,000 deaths in 2021.

Every death is a tragedy, but many more tragedies are avoided. Globally, the Lancet study shows that climate change now causes an additional 116,000 heat-related deaths each year, but prevents nearly 283,000 cold-related deaths. Each year, global warming saves 166,000 lives. Today we no longer see half a million or even 18,000 lives lost due to climate-related weather disasters, but 6,000. The year 2021 could see a decline in the risk of climate-related death over a century of 99.7%.

For a smart climate conversation, we must insist on seeing all the data.

Bjorn Lomborg is Chair of the Copenhagen Consensus Think Tank and Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. His latest book is False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

Our columns are a platform for writers to express their opinions. They do not necessarily represent the views of The Herald.


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Low Oxygen Levels Along the Pacific Northwest a ‘Silent’ Climate Change Crisis

SEATTLE – Almost two decades ago, fishermen discovered a strange event off the coast of Oregon. They were collecting pots of dead or lethargic crabs.

At first they suspected a chemical spill or a red tide. But instead, they learned dangerously low levels of dissolved oxygen in ocean water were to blame.

The crabs had choked.

These bands of hypoxic areas have surfaced every summer on the coasts of the Pacific Northwest since they were first recorded in 2002. They are stimulated by natural coastal upwelling and algal blooms. , exacerbated by climate change, said Francis Chan, director of the Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources. Studied at Oregon State University.

Similar to fire season, hypoxia season arrived earlier this year – the earliest start in 20 years, according to Chan. But unlike forest fires or other visible climate emergencies, it is largely unrecognized.

“It’s kind of a silent problem going on over there,” Chan said. “This year, I can look outside and see trees with a burnt side from the heatwave. As I drive the McKenzie Highway I can see Mount Jefferson has no snow on it. But when you drive towards the ocean, it looks exactly like last summer. “

The coasts of Washington and Oregon are part of the large California Current marine ecosystem that stretches from Mexico to Canada. The ecosystem is very dynamic because every spring and summer the northerly wind systems blow south and push the upper layer of the ocean out to sea. It is replaced by water from deeper depths which is rich in nutrients and helps fuel the productivity of the West Coast. This process is known as coastal upwelling.

Rise water has lower dissolved oxygen levels because deep water has spent so long isolated from the atmosphere. The nutrient richness encourages strong blooms of phytoplankton, also known as marine algae, which eventually decompose – a process that consumes more oxygen from the water – leaving coastal waters with high levels of oxygen. even lower which can result in suffocation of sea creatures.

“How long can you hold your breath?” Asked Jenny Waddell, research coordinator at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. “Aside from the marine mammals that breathe on the surface, just about everything else in the ocean uses dissolved oxygen for its life. “

Typically, hypoxic conditions did not arrive on the shoreline until mid-June or July. This year, hypoxic conditions were reported in April, with the upwelling season starting in March. To understand why an early start to the upwelling season is concerning, Chan compared it to the summer drought season. “Let’s say we expected rainfall until March, but the rain stops in February. That’s all the water we have. We have to hold out until next year.

Likewise, if the upwelling begins a month earlier than usual, the quantity of oxygen, already low, must last until the fall when thunderstorms favor the mixture which adds oxygen to the system.

Chan said that at the end of September this year, upwelling was still happening and low oxygen levels persisted.

Climate change plays a role in worsening oxygen levels. Simply put, warmer water contains less oxygen because oxygen molecules move faster and are more likely to escape from the surface. A little more complicated, climate change is altering the structure of the oceans, as the warmer top layer is more buoyant than the cooler, deeper and already oxygen-poor ocean layer. The warmer top layer prevents the deeper layer from “breathing,” Chan explained.

Globally, the oceans are already losing oxygen. Take this and add in local factors like coastal upwelling and the decomposition of phytoplankton blooms off the coasts of Washington and Oregon, and you have a system with extremely low oxygen levels.

While upwelling ecosystems like the CCLME were once considered resilient to climate change due to their dynamic nature, they have quickly and quietly become places that scientists say will be hit hard by changing conditions.

Scientists are busy monitoring the problem and collecting as much data as possible. But the death of sea creatures has alarmed not only scientists, but also coastal tribes, whose livelihoods depend on the ocean.

There is no record of recurring low oxygen levels as scientists have observed since 2002, despite more than 50 years of ocean monitoring. Joe Schumacker, a marine resources scientist from the Quinault Indian Nation, said there was nothing in Quinault traditional knowledge about large-scale marine mortalities that would suggest oxygen levels were as low as we can see it today. In 2017, the hypoxic event was so severe that Schumacker remembers the shores regularly lined with dead fish and crustaceans that summer. The International Pacific Halibut Commission also found that there was no or very little catch of Pacific halibut during this hypoxic event.

The marine sanctuary, where Waddell works, has been collecting ocean data through anchorages for 22 years. Moorings are like buoys with special instruments that collect data such as temperature, salinity, water direction, chlorophyll and oxygen levels off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula.

Anchorage data is one of the longest records scientists have in this region of the world documenting many oceanic features. This dataset is one of many models used to verify two regional forecast models, J-SCOPE and LiveOcean, for the coastal waters of Washington and Oregon that Samantha Siedlecki, a former researcher at the University of Washington and currently a professor at the University of Connecticut, played a central role. in development. Forecasts predict important ocean characteristics such as the timing of upwelling to the amount of dissolved oxygen in the ocean.

Waddell and Schumacker both said they saw forecasts predict an early rise and low oxygen levels this summer.

“When I think about hypoxia, it makes me really, really worried to be frank because it’s something we’re still not sure about all the dynamics that go with it,” Waddell said. “We are trying to figure this out.”

She said she saw coastal treaty tribes like the Quinaults on the front lines of climate change. “There is no part of the marine sanctuary that is outside of the tribal fishing areas protected by treaty,” Waddell explained.

Schumacker said Indigenous ocean fishing rights in Washington do not exist anywhere else in the United States.

“These treaty rights to harvest 50% of the exploitable fish and shellfish are legally defined in these certain boxes here,” Schumacker explained, referring to the boundaries of the tribal fishing area. “So it’s not like they can go somewhere else to fish. If things go wrong, they are immediately limited by this box which defines where the treaty exists. “

The people of Quinault, he said, take seriously not only understanding the impacts of climate change, but also adapting.

To illustrate the direct link between the health of the ocean and the tribe’s livelihoods, the Quinaults organize a summer clam dig each year to harvest clams for sale. The clam dig is also called the “school clothes dig” because families usually buy clothes and school supplies for their children with the money earned from collecting the clams.

“They are fishermen. All of the tribes here in the Pacific Northwest are fishermen. They have to keep fishing, ”said Schumacker.

Waddell said she was encouraged by the number of concerned young people and undergraduates who have reached out to investigate the matter.

“I don’t want to be negative or depressing. But yes, it will take all of us to make an effort to solve this problem in a meaningful way, ”she said.


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Treasury model on climate change finds economy ‘resilient to natural disasters’

The Treasury has attempted to account for some of the costs of climate change in its long-term fiscal position report.

Peter Meecham / Stuff

The Treasury has attempted to account for some of the costs of climate change in its long-term fiscal position report.

More severe droughts and storms due to climate change could cause New Zealand’s net public debt to be about 4 percentage points higher than otherwise, over the next 40 years, according to the Treasury.

The estimate contained in the report on the long-term fiscal position of the Treasury, Il Tirohanga Mokopuna 2021, seems moderate compared to broader concerns about climate change, such as the danger of further mass extinctions, sea level rise, resource conflicts and ocean acidification.

But Infometrics senior economist Brad Olsen said the report probably went as far as it could from a “political and economic point of view.”

The Treasury said its modeling suggested the economy and the government’s fiscal position were “relatively resilient to natural disasters.”

READ MORE:
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But he noted that extreme weather events were only one of the ways that climate change would affect the economy, and the impact they would have on debt could be greater than his modeling suggested.

“Climate change has started to impact New Zealand today, but the long-term effect is very uncertain at this point,” he said.

His model assumed that the frequency of droughts would roughly triple over the 40-year period and that occasional flooding would become 10 times more destructive.

Climate change was also just one of the long-term challenges for the economy identified in his report.

Others include an aging population.

Threats and historical trends meant governments had “important choices to make” to ensure that debt remains prudent and supports a higher standard of living for future generations, Treasury Secretary Caralee McLiesh said.

But current debt levels have remained cautious, the ministry also said.

Olsen said it was time to stop giving a helping hand to future generations “on everything from health care and social support, to climate change and economic resilience,” to avoid leaving future ones generations of New Zealanders with unbearable challenges.

Treasury analysis has shown that “the more we bury our heads in the sand, the more difficult the decisions we will eventually have to make,” he said.

The Minister of Finance responds to the concerns of Auckland companies “short of cash”.

Finance Minister Grant Roberson told Parliament’s Special Committee on Finance and Expenditure on Wednesday that he continued to expect public debt to peak in 2023 as a proportion of GDP, but warned it would only decrease gradually thereafter.

The Treasury forecast that the 2023 peak would see net government debt rise to 48% of GDP.

He said that in his judgment there is currently no need to reduce debt levels because the government’s budgetary response to Covid was “largely temporary”.

“Current debt levels are also unlikely to limit our ability to borrow more if needed,” he also concluded.

This is the first time that the Treasury has attempted to incorporate any of the budgetary implications of climate change into its long-term budget report.

“Climate change will have significant impacts on all aspects of our well-being – economic, social and environmental,” McLiesh said.


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How scientists can predict the future: the importance of climate models

Part of a scientist’s duty in today’s disinformation environment is to persuade the public about how science works. Making precise and measured projections about the future is necessary to convince the public to believe in science. Is it possible to make accurate predictions about how the world will look 50 years from now?

(Photo: Photo by Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)

Use of climate models

Earth

(Photo: Pixabay)

For more than 50 years, scientists have relied on climate models. The models produce representations of physical conditions on Earth and simulations of the current climate using mathematical equations and hundreds of data points. To create longer-term projections, climate models increasingly incorporate atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic factors.

Climate models predict how the typical circumstances of a region will change over the next few decades and what the climate was like before people started recording it.

The first climate model was built over 50 years ago, at the very beginning of climate research. Increases in temperature and changes in oceanic and atmospheric currents are expected to contribute to climate change in the model. He helped scientists determine how the ocean and the atmosphere interacted to impact the climate.

Related Article: 2050 Earth Map Predicts Our Dark Future Brought By Climate Change

Climate awareness.

WEATHER STORM UNITED STATES (IDA)

(Photo: Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON / AFP via Getty Images)

According to a survey by the Pew Research Center, most Americans are already aware of the consequences of climate change on their environment. Individuals, businesses and governments, on the other hand, must “adapt to a fundamentally and dangerously changing climate,” according to Cascio.

People need to consider the climate in all of their important decisions, including whether or not to have children, which car to buy, how to invest, and when and where to buy a home. In addition, governments are making decisions that will significantly influence the future of entire countries, such as investing in alternative energies or limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate models are necessary for scientists to understand the future climate. Hausfather was the lead researcher in a study that examined the accuracy of early climate models. According to experts, the majority of models were quite accurate. Some of the findings were included in the report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

According to the researchers, 14 of the first 17 climate models are “substantially similar” to the warming observed in the real world. Given the lack of observable evidence of warming at the time, the accuracy is exceptionally unique. For example, the cooling impact of atmospheric aerosols was predicted by one of the first climate models established in 1971.

Develop better models

Despite the potential of climate models demonstrated by Hausfather’s work, these models continue to have shortcomings, especially with regard to the unpredictability of future emissions. Additionally, when climate models are pushed outside of their specified limits, accuracy issues arise. Climate models base their predictions on physical circumstances observed in nature rather than the statistical probability of countering it.

Cascio and other futurists place scientific facts in a larger framework, making predictions based on climate change, new technological advances, and political and social movements, while climatologists focus on physics to create projections for the future climate. Cascio defined Futurism as “a fundamentally anticipatory story”.

Also Read: NASA Reports Earth Trapped ‘Unprecedented’ Amount of Heat in Energy Imbalance

For more environmental news, be sure to follow Nature World News!

© 2021 NatureWorldNews.com All rights reserved. Do not reproduce without permission.


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How Scientists Predict Climate Scenarios – Enter the World of Climate Models

The climate of our planet is an extremely complex subject. Of course, the underlying principles are simple, but incorporating the interaction between all the different elements is a very difficult task. To assess the situation on a large scale, researchers often turn to what are called climate models.

A climate model is a quantitative simulation of the elements of our planet’s climate. When researchers develop models, they divide the planet into a grid, apply known equations from the parameters they consider, and “run” the model to evaluate the results. Models can be more or less detailed, can span the past or the future, and can be localized or planetary.

This world map shows the evolution of average annual precipitation projected by the GFDL CM2.1 model for the 21st century (Credit: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, via Wikimedia Commons).

Fill gaps

Climate models are essential tools for climatologists as they attempt to make sense of the complex dynamics of Earth’s climate system. One of the reasons is that we don’t have access to all the data. We have started observing the planet’s climate relatively recently, we haven’t covered the whole planet with meteorological instruments, so there are a lot of gaps in our climate data. Models can help fill these gaps.

Official temperature records began in 1880 in the UK and surface observations developed over time to become the integrated system we have today with satellites, buoys, planes and stations around the planet.

But while our ability to collect data has improved dramatically, especially with the advent of satellite data, the planet is so big that even with all of these data points we have, there are still many gaps to be filled.

Alder, Jay, Simulated Global Temperature Change. usgs.gov. United States Geological Survey (USGS) (May 26, 2016). Archived from the original on August 23, 2019.

It is important to delve into the concept of climate. Officially, the World Meteorological Organization defines climate as “the measure of the average and variability of relevant amounts of certain variables (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) over a period of time, officially declared within 30 years “.

In other words, the climate is the reason why the inhabitants of the Caribbean hardly have warm jackets; time, on the other hand, is what happens today. Weather is an event, climate is a long term trend.

Complexity

Horizontal resolutions taken into account in the current higher resolution models and in the very high resolution models currently tested: (a) Illustration of the
topography at a resolution of 87.5 × 87.5 km; (b) identical to (a) but for a resolution of 30.0 × 30.0 km. Source: IPCC

One of the reasons that models are so complicated is that they have to incorporate multiple types of data. Climate models should be a good representation of the physical world, which involves things like winds, currents, chemistry, and many more.

This means that we cannot use a model that approximates the oceans to giant swimming pools. Oceans have currents and other complex mechanisms that play a role in climate governance – and a comprehensive model should incorporate these elements. essential for understanding the climate.

Resolution is also a problem. Models can’t have rough representations, you can’t make a climate model that assumes the Andes are just a bunch of rectangular walls on the coast of South America – we need better resolution to that our model be precise.

It’s like Lego sculptures, if you have a lot of small bricks you can make a good Millennium Falcon, a few big bricks won’t be able to build the round shape of the ship. The resolution has increased over the years as we now have better computers to do the math.

However, this does not mean that the old models did not make good predictions, quite the contrary. Models from 1970 to 2007 were found to be consistent with observed global average surface temperatures. However, models that incorporate more parameters and have better resolution tend to produce better results.

Are they good enough?

No model is a perfect representation of reality. But they don’t need to be and can still help us understand how our planet’s climate will change.

One way to test a climate model is to use old data and see if it “predicts” climatic phenomena that we already knew occurred. Put simply, you claim to have built the model a few years ago and see if it successfully predicts something that has already happened. This is called a “hindcast” as opposed to a “forecast”. Here is an example.

In 1991, there was a worldwide impact eruption on Mount Pinatubo; its volcanic ash reached 35 km in the atmosphere. Scientists knew that the number of ashes would be enough to cool the atmosphere. James Hansen and his team took the opportunity to validate their climate model, to see if it was good enough to show the cooling effect.

With 6 months of actual data after the eruption, scientists were able to compare model temperatures and observations. The results were almost as expected – the model predicted a cooling effect; it wasn’t a perfect prediction, but it was good enough. Despite the complexity of simultaneous events on a global scale, the climate model has a definite cooling trend.

The models that were used in the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC can be assessed by comparing their predictions over about 20 years with what actually happened. In this figure, the multi-model set and the average of all models are plotted alongside the surface temperature index (GISTEMP) from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The climatic factors were known for the “indicative” period (before 2000) and forecast for the period beyond. Temperatures are plotted against a 1980-1999 baseline. Credit: Gavin Schmidt

Scenarios

Models are a way to do an experiment, we can’t actually test whether the effects of CO2 emissions on the atmosphere by filling it with gas, we don’t have an atmosphere in a lab to test, so we model and simulate scenarios. You get the equation and add the amount of CO2 emissions per year, the model gets the number and works with it to tell you by how much the temperature will rise.

This is what the IPCC scenarios are for. These scenarios are the “ifs”: “if we continue to emit the same amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that we are currently emitting, what happens? “,” If we increase GHG emissions, what happens? “And” if we reduce GHG emissions, what happens? These scenarios are then used to predict different time periods, in almost 20 years, medium term in 40 years and longer term in 100 years.

With these scenarios, we can decide our actions for the future and find solutions to avoid extreme weather events like the recent ones. Since we have climate models to help us, we must act, because there is no doubt that humanity is the cause of the negative impact on the climate.

So what do the models tell us for the future?

We are in the midst of a global warming effect, and there is overwhelming evidence that we are the cause, through our greenhouse gas emissions. These gases heat the atmosphere, which in turn warms the entire planet.

Models can give us a lot of detail on how this will play out (spoiler alert: this is bad) and what we can do to stop it. For example, models suggest that if we do not act, our planet will experience a warming of more than 4 degrees Celsius. With current policies, we are heading towards around 3 degrees Celsius, and if all countries meet their current commitments and targets, we are heading towards 2.4 degrees.

However, the models also show that if we exceed 2 degrees, we are already causing catastrophic damage to the planet. Since we are already at one degree of heat since before the industrial age, our best bet would be to keep the heat below 1.5 degrees. The models also show how we can do it, but whether we as a society actually come together and do it is a whole different matter.

Basically, climate models are a tool. They are a tool to help us better understand the planet, the effects we have on it, and how we can remedy the damage we cause. They’re not perfect, but they’re extremely useful, and we’d do well to keep an eye on them as we navigate the dangers of a hot climate.


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First, global climate models will be available through the cloud

Currently, climate modeling is only accessible to a privileged few. As computing has become more sophisticated in recent decades, financial and practical hurdles have made grasping the complexity of how climate change could impact Earth’s systems out of reach for most. researchers.

However, one of the biggest companies in the world is trying to democratize the process. Amazon.com Inc.’s Sustainability Data Initiative is launching a one-of-a-kind partnership with nonprofit SilverLining and the National Center for Atmospheric Research on Tuesday, which will make climate model simulations available in the cloud, potentially expanding the club of researchers with access to these data to include those from small coastal or island countries already affected by climate change.

“Even in the United States and in Western countries, computational capacity is one of the biggest hurdles where we don’t understand the climate system faster,” Kelly Wanser, executive director of SilverLining, said in an interview. “And it is also a problem of power disparity, because only certain countries have access to this kind of capacities.”

Dr Ana Pinheiro Privette, responsible for Amazon Sustainability Data Initiative, added that putting the models in the cloud “eliminates the cost of acquisition by making the data freely available” and “minimizes the need to store multiple copies of the data, which decreases the carbon footprint of climate research.”

The e-commerce giant’s initiative will allow NCAR to use technology and technical support from Amazon Web Services to run a collection of 30 model simulations from 2035 to 2070. The process will use two NCAR models – the Community Earth System Model Version 2 and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – operating under a median warming scenario.

The UK Meteorological Office will then replicate the model simulations, and the associated simulations will use the model from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The datasets resulting from these analyzes will be freely available to researchers around the world.

“Cloud hosting of climate model simulations can accelerate the pace of science and allow much wider access and more meaningful collaboration with researchers around the world,” said Jean-François Lamarque, director of the Laboratory of climate and global dynamics from NCAR, in a statement. declaration.

And indeed, this collaboration is integrated in this initial project. Research teams from four US universities worked on the project alongside those from the Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies, the University of Cape Town, the University of Nairobi, the University of the Philippines and others.

The resulting open-source dataset will allow research teams around the world to circumvent one of the main obstacles to specialized climate modeling, even for those who have the computational capacity to do so: cost. . Wanser said running the 30 simultaneous simulations would normally cost around $ 700,000 and take two months.

The AWS program will cover all costs associated with hosting and sharing data from the cloud, and access and download will be free. Grants will be available for users who choose to analyze or run additional models on AWS.

The planned simulations will be run at a resolution of 100 kilometers (that is, each pixel in the resulting earth model will be 100 square kilometers), Wanser said; a higher resolution simulation (eg 10 km) would take up to 100 times more computing capacity.

Wanser said AWS, SilverLining and NCAR plan to finalize the data within six months. In the future, the three hope to make more global climate models and datasets accessible through the cloud, according to the press release.

“Traditionally, researchers and climatologists have not been able to bring their expertise, perspectives and concerns to the solutions space,” Privette said. “Climate change is a global and complex problem, so having a greater diversity of thoughts and knowledge will help us build stronger solutions. “

This is reflected in the experience of Dr Chris Lennard, a senior researcher at the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town, who said in a statement that his ability to study severe droughts and other climate impacts occurring locally is “limited by local computing resources.” and networks.

“Open access to models and datasets, as well as high-performance cloud-based computing environments to work with them, allows us to engage as researchers as well,” he added, “ and to design and carry out studies to help people in our part of the world. that were not conceivable in the past.

Correction: Due to inaccurate information provided to Morning Consult, the original version of this story contained the wrong year in which the 30 model simulations will begin. The story has also been updated to include comments from AWS’s Ana Pinheiro Privette and to clarify the name of NASA’s climate model.


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Letter to the editor: Russian climate models are more accurate for forecasting purposes

When the global warming controversy started, the scientists involved released a graph: a graph / graph showing that the temperature of the atmosphere or the ocean (I can’t remember which one, but it doesn’t matter. now) is growing so rapidly lately that the graph looks like a hockey stick.

In less than a day, it was discovered that the authors had used a technique called parametrization in their work. In a two-dimensional application, the technique is to select two distant points from a group of points and draw a line between them, arbitrarily ignoring other data points. Unfortunately, these scientists exaggerated by drawing two lines end to end with a sharp bend to support their theory of an accelerated warming trend. A method called least squares regression would have been much more accurate but would not have indicated the large increase in temperature they wanted to show. They may have used least squares regression and then falsified the result. Anyway, they did what we ordinary people call cooking the books.

These same scientists were accused of controlling what could be published and had consistently denied the publications of opposing views. Once exposed, those involved in the subterfuge were immediately ostracized by their peers. Unsure of the continued value of the word “warming” to the cause, the movement’s proponents turned to climate change and continued to drum up drums.



Parameterization of climate data began in Europe in the 1970s. We are told that the Russians did not parameterize climate data. Therefore, their current models have been found to be more accurate for prediction purposes. You might be uncomfortable knowing that we have to depend on the Russians for such information. Too bad. We depended on the Germans for rocket craftsmanship and on the Japanese for automotive quality. And they were both our enemies in WWII. So what’s up?

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