Climate models

New Research Finds Climate Models Usually Do It Right

[ad_1] New climate research, conducted primarily in San Diego, reveals that a study of Earth’s temperatures during the last ice age confirms some widely held ideas about climate change. Lead author Alan Seltzer, a paleoclimatologist at the Wood’s Hole Institute of Oceanography, studied ancient water as a way to better understand never-before-recorded planetary temperatures. New […]

Climate variability

Scientists: Climate variability will intensify in the Great Plains | Land and Cattle Post

[ad_1] Cow / calf operations in the Great Plains are likely to be affected by the increased variability in rainfall which supports forage production for 50% of the country’s cow herd. Texas A&M AgriLife photo By ADAM RUSSELL Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Mother Nature has provided increasingly erratic precipitation for the Great Plains over the […]

Climate models

Misuse of climate models may pose growing risk to financial markets, experts warn

[ad_1] Could climate change affect your business? According to the authors of an article in the United Kingdom, the misuse of climate models could pose a growing risk to financial markets. The report says that misuse of climate models can give investors a false sense of certainty about how the physical impacts of climate change […]

Climate variability

The Great Plains facing climate variability

[ad_1] Mother Nature has provided increasingly erratic rainfall for the Great Plains over the past decade, affecting grasslands, forage systems and cattle production in the region – and scientists expect this trend to continue. intensifies. Cow / calf operations in the Great Plains are likely to be affected by the increased variability in rainfall which […]

Climate models

How to use climate models

[ad_1] The new report from the Australian Academy of Sciences, The risks for Australia of a 3 ° C hotter world, has grim predictions for the nation’s future under current carbon emissions policy and action. All of these predictions are based on climate models. Among the now familiar predictions of ecological and economic damage, the […]

Climate models

New project to open years of atmospheric data, improve climate models

[ad_1] A Stanford researcher is leading a project to better understand gravity waves, tiny ripples that contribute to the global circulation of the atmosphere. Aditi Sheshadri The first step: estimate the amount of movement carried by gravity waves and make these new estimates available to the research community. And this is no small task. Since […]

Climate variability

Society’s positive response to past climate variability is an example for today

[ad_1] By Mikayla Mace Kelley, University Communications March 24, 2021 Ruins of Late Antiquity villages in the limestone massif of Syria: rural settlements in the Roman and Sassanid Near East developed during the Little Ice Age of Late Antiquity. Artur Rodziewicz As the signs of man-made climate change become increasingly alarming, research into how past […]

Climate models

New climate models with high climate sensitivity are not plausible

[ad_1] A recent analysis of the latest generation of climate models – known as CMIP6 – provides a caveat on interpreting climate simulations as scientists develop more sensitive and sophisticated projections of how the Earth will react to levels. increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Researchers from Princeton University and the University of […]

Climate variability

Climate variability and pandemic – creating insecurity

[ad_1] Mohamed Zamir | Posted: 07 March 2021 21:46:40 | Update: March 16, 2021, 8:15 p.m. Currently, in many parts of the world, environmentalists are referring to a 2018 United Nations security resolution that warned of the adverse effects of climate change, ecological changes and natural disasters. This warning is now being realized through what […]

Climate variability

Climate variability and pandemic – creating insecurity

[ad_1] Mohamed Zamir | Posted: 07 March 2021 21:46:40 | Update: March 16, 2021, 8:15 p.m. Currently, in many parts of the world, environmentalists are referring to a 2018 United Nations security resolution that warned of the adverse effects of climate change, ecological changes and natural disasters. This warning is now being realized through what […]

Climate models

The high end of climate sensitivity in new climate models considered less plausible – ScienceDaily

[ad_1] A recent analysis of the latest generation of climate models – known as CMIP6 – provides a caveat on interpreting climate simulations as scientists develop more sensitive and sophisticated projections of how the Earth will react to levels. increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Researchers at Princeton University and the University of […]

Climate models

The future of precipitation in the Alps

[ad_1] Credit: CC0 Public Domain Less intense average daily precipitation, more intense and localized extreme events. This is what the future climate scenarios for the Eastern Alps indicate, according to the study “Evaluation and Expected Changes of Summer Precipitation at Convection Permitting Scale with COSMO-CLM over Alpine Space”, published by the CMCC Foundation in the […]

Climate models

Scientists warn against misuse of climate models in financial markets

[ad_1] LONDON (Reuters) – The misuse of climate models could pose a growing risk to financial markets by giving investors a false sense of certainty about how the physical impacts of climate change will play out, article authors say published Monday. With heat waves, wildfires, massive storms and sea level rise set to intensify as […]

Climate models

Antarctica is melting in a way our climate models never predicted, scientists say

[ad_1] The Antarctic ice sheet is not melting in the linear way our climate models predicted. Instead, a more detailed model shows that as the rate of ice loss at the South Pole accelerates rapidly, there is snowfall and brief respite from melting along the way. “The ice sheet doesn’t change at a constant rate […]

Climate models

Gavin Schmidt: The problem with climate models? People.

[ad_1] Gavin Schmidt says there is nothing wrong with climate models – in fact, “they did a pretty good job of predicting what happened.” One of the reasons they’re not more specific, he says, is the people. Dr Schmidt is the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and one of the nation’s top […]

Climate models

University of Wyoming researchers modify climate patterns from the air

Wildfire research has become increasingly important in recent years as climate change has made fires more frequent and intense. But smoke from wildfires could have a bigger effect on the climate than previously thought. Wyoming Public Radio’s Ivy Engel spoke with Shane Murphy, a University of Wyoming researcher who has studied the smoke inside plumes. […]

Climate models

Latest climate models should not increase projections of future warming

[ad_1] A notable scenario in the climate system over the past two years has been the effort to make sense of the latest generation of climate models. In support of the upcoming report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate models have submitted their simulations to the latest database, known as CMIP6. […]

Climate models

What COVID forecasters can learn from climate models

[ad_1] A second national lockdown began in England on November 5.Credit: Hollie Adams / AFP / Getty Epidemiologists predicting the spread of COVID-19 should adopt climate modeling methods to make predictions more reliable, say computer scientists who have spent months auditing one of the pandemic’s most influential models. In a study that was uploaded to […]

Climate models

The past is the key to predicting the future climate – Models should be tested by simulating past climates

[ad_1] Past carbon dioxide concentrations (left) versus possible future emission scenarios (right): the rate of current emissions is much faster – occurring over decades – unlike geological changes, which occur over millions of years. If emissions continue unabated, carbon dioxide levels could reach or exceed values ​​associated with warm climates of the past, such as […]

Climate models

Polar ice, atmospheric water vapor, the main drivers of variation among climate models

[ad_1] Credit: CC0 Public Domain A Florida State University researcher is part of a team that found that various projections of global warming trends advanced by climate change scientists can be explained by the models’ different predictions of ice loss and vapor. atmospheric water. The work will help climatologists reconcile various models to improve their […]

Climate models

Clouds could be the missing link in climate models

[ad_1] Scientists have been trying to figure out why the latest generation of climate models predict a much hotter future than previously thought. The main culprit could be clouds, according to a new article published on June 24 in Scientists progress (1). Every few years, a more advanced generation of climate models emerges. In the […]

Climate models

Increased warming in latest generation of climate models likely caused by clouds

Credit: CC0 Public Domain As scientists scramble to determine why some of the latest climate models suggest the future may be hotter than previously thought, a new study says the reason is likely related to challenges simulating training and cloud evolution. The new research, published in Scientists progress, provides an overview of 39 updated models […]

Climate models

New representations of clouds make models more sensitive to carbon dioxide

As scientists work to determine why some of the latest climate models suggest the future could be warmer than previously thought, a new study indicates the reason is likely to be linked to challenges simulating the formation and l evolution of clouds. The new research, published in Scientists progress, provides an overview of 39 updated […]

Climate models

Latest climate models show more intense droughts to come

The Maranoa River south of Mitchell, Queensland during the 2017 drought. Credit: Chris Fithall (Flickr Creative Commons CC BY 2.0) An analysis of new climate model projections by Australian researchers at the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes shows South West Australia and parts of South Australia will experience longer and more intense droughts […]

Climate models

How hot will it be this century? The latest climate models suggest it could be worse than we thought

Climatologists use mathematical models to project Earth’s future in a warming world, but a group of latest models included surprisingly high values ​​for a measure called “climate sensitivity.” Climate sensitivity refers to the relationship between changes in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and warming. High values ​​are a bad surprise. If they’re right, that means […]

Climate models

The latest climate models have unrealistic projections of future warming

A new study by climatologists at the University of Michigan concludes that some of the latest generation climate models may be overly sensitive to increases in carbon dioxide and therefore project unrealistic future warming. In a letter scheduled for publication April 30 in the journal Natural climate changethe researchers say projections from one of the […]

Climate models

Some of the latest climate models provide unrealistic projections of future warming

A new study by climatologists at the University of Michigan concludes that some of the latest generation climate models may be overly sensitive to increases in carbon dioxide and therefore project unrealistic future warming. In a letter scheduled for publication April 30 in the journal Natural climate change, the researchers say that projections from one […]

Climate variability

Climate variability on the Seeing Past the Smoke workshop program

[ad_1] Dr Chelsea Jarvis is an agricultural climatology researcher working on the MLA-funded North Australia climate program. She says a good knowledge of researching and interpreting weather and climate forecasts helps producers make informed choices. “Hope is not a plan” is part of the message Chelsea Jarvis brings to the free disaster resilience workshops at […]

Climate models

Climate models predict even more warming, which concerns scientists

A handful of climate projections predict a rise in global temperatures much higher than what scientists have seen in previous models. Although the number raises concerns, some scientists hope the latest projections are outliers. A 2 degree rise in temperature could lead to rising sea levels, the death of coral reefs and dangerous water scarcity […]

Climate models

The latest generation of climate models is getting hotter – here’s why

Prior to each Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the Global Climate Modeling Centers produce a central database of standardized simulations. Over the past year, an interesting trend has emerged in the most recent round of this effort: the newer and better versions of these models are, on average, more sensitive to CO2, warming […]

Climate variability

Rain, hot and humid days in December due to ‘climate variability’ | Nagpur News

[ad_1] Nagpur: Wondering why this December is rainier, foggy, and wetter than the norm for Nagpur? “Climate variability” is the answer, say weather experts. Christmas came as a surprise to citizens, with many parts of the city receiving low rainfall. Nagpur Regional Meteorological Center (RMC) officials said it started raining late Wednesday night, with drizzle […]

Climate variability

ABARES analyzes the effects of drought and climate variability on Australian farms

[ad_1] Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Knowledge report provides analysis on the effects of climate variability on Australian crop and livestock farms. The report examines both short-term climate risks such as drought and long-term changes in climatic conditions. ABARES Senior Economist Dr Neal Hughes said that an observed change to […]

Climate models

Early climate models were spot on when it came to global warming

Climate skeptics have long questioned the accuracy of computer models that predict global warming, but most early climate models turn out to be spot-on, according to a flashback from University of California climatologists at Berkeley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NASA. Of 17 climate models published between the early 1970s and late 2000s, 14 were […]

Climate models

Climate models have always been right, new study finds

A recent to study computer climate models dating back to the 1970s have shown them to be very accurate in relation to what actually happened over the following decades. This builds confidence in modern models that predict further changes in the future. In the 1970s, climatologists began to report the increasing amount of carbon dioxide […]

Climate models

Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

In climate science, models are essential tools in trying to understand an uncertain future. But attempts to predict the future are easy targets, and climate change skeptics have long sought to poke holes in past climate change predictions to undermine the credibility of today’s dire warnings. Now a full review of climate models dating back […]

Climate models

Even 50 years ago, climate models were far more accurate than deniers claim

It’s a common refrain from those who question the findings of climate science: the computer models scientists use to project future global warming are inaccurate and shouldn’t be trusted to help policymakers decide whether to they must take potentially costly measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions. A new study effectively quells this argument by examining […]

Climate models

Climate models have understood global warming well

There’s a favorite argument among those who doubt mainstream climate science: climate models overestimate the rate at which the Earth is warming. This claim resurfaces time and time again and is often based on single instances of uncertainty or hand-picked data. Various studies have looked closely at individual climate models in recent years and have […]

Climate models

Climate models are often attacked, but most of the time they are remarkably good

A new study finds that past computer simulations of climate change have been quite accurate. Credit: Associated Press Computer models used to simulate the effects of heat-trapping gases on global temperatures have been quite accurate in their predictions, according to a new study. After years of hearing reviewers criticize the models’ accuracy, climatologist Zeke Hausfather […]

Climate models

Nailed: Early climate models accurately predicted effects of global warming, study finds | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel

This color-coded map shows global surface temperature anomalies. Temperatures above normal are shown in red and temperatures below normal are shown in blue. (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center) Of the 17 climate change models examined, 14 were accurate enough to predict the effects of global warming. The researchers fed the actual emission levels into the […]

Climate models

How successful have climate models really been in predicting the future?

A new paper by Hausfather and his colleagues (including me) has just been published with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you fixed the small errors in the projected overrides, they performed remarkably well. Climate models are central to our understanding of our future climate. They have […]

Climate models

Individual climate models may not provide the complete picture

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pennsylvania — Equilibrium climate sensitivity — the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide — may be underestimated in individual climate models, according to a team of climatologists. “Probabilistic estimates of climate system properties often rely on comparing the model simulation with observed temperature records and an estimate of internal […]

Climate models

Climate models are not certain. So why are scientists so confident?

Katharine Hayhoe knows that climate models are not perfect. “The more you know about models, the less you trust them and the more you blow their tires,” says Dr. Hayhoe, co-director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. Why we wrote this When planning for the future, certainty can be hard to come […]

Climate models

The great failure of climate models

Computer models of the climate are at the heart of calls to ban the cheap, reliable energy that powers our thriving economy and promotes healthier, longer lives. For decades, these models have projected dramatic warming small fossil increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, with catastrophic consequences. Yet real-world data doesn’t cooperate. They only show a […]

Climate variability

Rtl today – climate variability: twentieth century warming “unmatched” in 2000 years

[ad_1] Global temperatures rose faster at the end of the 20th century than at any time in the past 2,000 years, according to a study released Wednesday that experts say undermines questioning by climate deniers about the role of climate change. humanity in global warming. As Europe suffocated in a second record-breaking heat wave in […]

Climate models

Current Climate Models Can Predict Global Warming Decades Ahead – ScienceDaily

A new reconstruction of global mean surface temperature trends over the past 2,000 years has identified the major causes of decade-scale climate change. The analysis suggests that the Earth’s current rate of warming, caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases, is greater than any previously observed rate of warming. The researchers also found that airborne […]

Climate variability

How does climate variability contribute to global crop failures?

[ad_1] According to a recent paper published on July 3 in the journal Scientists progress (1). For example, in 1983, ENSO was responsible for the largest synchronous harvest failure in recorded modern history. Globally synchronous harvest failures refer to the simultaneous failure of a single harvest in several as far apart as the United States, […]

Climate models

What climate models are wrong about future water availability

Source: Geophysical Research Letters One of the most difficult questions regarding climate change is how the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere will affect water availability around the world. Climate models present a range of possible scenarios, some more extreme than others– which can complicate planning for cities, states and countries. Now, however, in a new […]

Climate models

Guest post: Why results from the next generation of climate models matter

Professor Stephen Belcher is Chief Scientist at UK Met Office; Doctor Olivier Boucher is at the head of Pierre Simon Laplace Institute (IPSL) Climate Modeling Center; and Professor Rowan Sutton is director of climate research at UK National Center for Atmospheric Sciences (NCAS), Reading University. The first results of a new generation of global climate […]

Climate variability

Global warming is accelerating climate variability, study finds • Earth.com

[ad_1] The Earth has gone through many warming and cooling periods where temperatures were drastically different from what they are today. What makes today’s climate change so noticeable compared to other warm interglacial periods of the past is that rates of warming and carbon build-up in the atmosphere are occurring at unprecedented levels. . But […]

Climate variability

Analysis of natural climate variability from man-made climate change – sciencedaily

[ad_1] A new study indicates that pink noise may be the key to separating natural climate variability from climate change that is influenced by human activity. New to pink noise? It is a random noise in which each octave contains the same amount of energy. Pink noise is found in systems ranging from earthquakes and […]

Climate models

Past warming events suggest climate models fail to capture true warming under business-as-usual scenarios

According to an international team of researchers from 17 countries. The results published last week in nature geoscience are based on observational evidence of three warm periods over the past 3.5 million years, when the world was 0.5°C to 2°C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures in the 19th century. The research has also revealed how large […]

Climate variability

Climate variability affects the mental health of the rural poor

[ad_1] New research linking climate variability to mental distress among poor rural India addresses hotly debated topic Working outdoors in summer leads to heat stress (Photo by Nevil Javeri) Climate variability affects the psychological well-being of adults, especially the rural poor, reports new research from India, reigniting debate over the complex interplay of factors that […]

Climate variability

Climate-resilient water security plans: managing the health risks associated with climate variability and change – World

[ad_1] Abstract Long-term planning for an adequate and secure supply of drinking water must be placed in the context of growing external uncertainties resulting from changes in climate and the environment. The Water Safety Plan (PSE) process provides a systematic framework for managing these risks taking into account the implications of climate variability and change. […]

Climate variability

Degradation of the North American ice cap has reduced climate variability in the southern hemisphere

[ad_1] Credit: CC0 Public domain New research from the University of Colorado at Boulder shows that the changing topography of the ice caps in the northern hemisphere during the last ice age forced changes in the climate of Antarctica, a mechanism of interpolar climate change hitherto undocumented. The new study published today in the journal […]

Climate variability

Degradation of the North American ice cap has reduced climate variability in the southern hemisphere – sciencedaily

[ad_1] New research from the University of Colorado at Boulder shows that the changing topography of the ice caps in the northern hemisphere during the last ice age forced changes in Antarctica’s climate, a mechanism of interpolar climate change hitherto undocumented. The new study – published today in the journal Nature and co-authored by researchers […]

Climate variability

Researchers compare global temperature variability during ice ages and interglacials – sciencedaily

[ad_1] Based on a unique global comparison of data from core samples taken from the ocean floor and polar ice caps, AWI researchers have now shown that although climate change has indeed diminished in the world between ice ages and interglacials, the difference is by no means as pronounced as previously assumed. Until now, it […]

Climate variability

Climate variability versus climate change

[ad_1] Climate change is a permanent deviation from the mean or the mean, whether it is hotter, cooler, wetter or drier. It can also be defined as the changes that occur due to human activities, such as increased levels of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. Climate variability, on the other hand, is a variation […]

Climate variability

ORNL’s Salil Mahajan: Acquiring a Perspective on Climate Variability Through High-Resolution Modeling

[ad_1] Computer climatologist Salil Mahajan simulates the complex and chaotic aspects of the climate at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. (Photo by ORNL / US Department of Energy) By Ashley C. Huff, Oak Ridge National Laboratory High resolution global climate simulation at multiple scales will help answer questions about future global and regional climates. However, […]

Climate variability

Southern Plains Climate Hub helps land managers build resilience to climate variability

[ad_1] Posted by Jean Steiner, Head of Climate Centers at USDA Southern Plains in Feb 21 2017 Windswept farmland in Kansas during the Dust Bowl. The southern plains states of the United States have always been known for their rugged climate. Stories of this region’s unstable climate abound. Whether you’re talking about Pecos Bill making […]

Climate variability

Climate variability increases internal migration in South America and swollen cities

[ad_1] As global climate change affects livelihoods across the globe, migration patterns are also changing. In a recent study published in Global environmental change, Clark Gray, Valerie Mueller, and I have found that since the 1970s, climatic variations have increased internal migration in many countries in South America, with few exceptions. And a lot of […]

Climate variability

Climate variability rather than overcrowding causes recent large-scale changes in Tibetan pasture cover

[ad_1] Balmford, A. et al. Economic reasons for the conservation of wild nature. Sciences 297, 950-953 (2002). CASE ADS Item Google Scholar Liu, J. & Diamond, J. China’s environment in a globalized world. Nature 435, 1179-1186 (2005). CASE ADS Item Google Scholar Xu, X., Lu, C., Shi, X. & Gao, S. World water tower: an […]

Climate variability

Crop frequency and area response to climate variability may exceed yield response

[ad_1] 1 Rosenzweig, C. et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global intercomparison of mesh crop models. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. United States 111, 3268-3273 (2014). CASE Item Google Scholar 2 Auffhammer, M. & Schlenker, W. Empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation. Energy saving. 46, 555-561 (2014). […]

Climate variability

Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

[ad_1] 1 Convention on Biological Diversity, Aichi Biodiversity Targets. http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/default.shtml 2 Scheffer, M. et al. Early warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461, 53-59 (2009) CASE ADS Item Google Scholar 3 Solano, R., Didan, K., Jacobson, A. & Huete, A. C5 MODIS Vegetation Index User Guide (MOD13 series). 1–42 http://vip.arizona.edu/documents/MODIS/MODIS_VI_UsersGuide_01_2012.pdf (2010) 4 Nemani, RR et […]

Climate variability

New study challenges long-held theories of climate variability in the North Atlantic

[ad_1] This figure shows the characteristic “horseshoe” model of Atlantic climate variability (upper left panel), as well as the temporal history of this model (lower left). Most of the previous studies attribute this to changes in ocean circulation. Our study compares climate models that include ocean circulation (top right) with climate models that do not […]

Climate variability

Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability

[ad_1] 1 Kosaka, Y. & Xie, SP. Recent hiatus in global warming linked to the cooling of the surface of the equatorial Pacific. Nature 501, 403–407 (2013). CASE Item Google Scholar 2 Fyfe, JC, Gillett, NP & Zwiers, FW Overestimation of global warming over the past 20 years. Nature Clim. Switch 3, 767-769 (2013). Item […]

Climate variability

UMD researcher sorts climate variability from climate change – Duluth News Tribune

Research by a UMD professor that separates the Earth’s natural climate variability from external factors indicates that these external factors – in particular greenhouse gas-induced climate change – are the probable cause of global warming of the planet. The study found that natural climate variability has likely helped keep things cooler in recent years than […]