Rain, hot and humid days in December due to ‘climate variability’ | Nagpur News

Nagpur: Wondering why this December is rainier, foggy, and wetter than the norm for Nagpur? “Climate variability” is the answer, say weather experts.
Christmas came as a surprise to citizens, with many parts of the city receiving low rainfall. Nagpur Regional Meteorological Center (RMC) officials said it started raining late Wednesday night, with drizzle continuing through early Thursday morning in some areas.
The city recorded 9.6 millimeters of rain until 8:30 a.m. Thursday, officials said. Also earlier this month, the city had received light showers.
The discontinuity in the flow of winds brings humidity and rains to the area, said Mohanlal Sahu, deputy general manager of RMC, Nagpur. “Winters have a well-defined pattern: northerly winds hit central India and mercury levels drop. Currently, the wind that arrives in our region is not completely from the north, ”he said.
This is due to the continuous high pressure circulation over Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. “The current configuration is such that westerly and southwest winds are blowing in the region. And because of the high pressure circulation, these winds bring humidity. As a result, the mornings are cloudy and many areas of Vidarbha receive light rain, ”Sahu said.
Compared to recent years, this month of December seems to be much warmer. Explaining the unusually high temperatures, Sahu said, “When the atmosphere is cloudy, the minimum temperature does not drop. For it to fall, the sky must be clear.
Another unusual weather condition that many citizens talk about is a layer of haze enveloping the city. According to Sahu, this condition can also be attributed to the presence of moisture in the air. “When temperatures drop early in the morning, the presence of water particles in the air causes a foggy state. With a further drop in temperature, the haze will turn to fog, ”he said.
Noting that not all unusual weather conditions can be attributed to climate change, Sahu said, “Climate change is a slow and continuous process. Although the winter of this year does not seem as cold as last year – when December recorded a minimum temperature of three degrees Celsius – we cannot call it “climate change”, because the winter of the next year could be cooler. What is happening now is climate variability.
Current weather conditions should change in a day or two. “After January 1, we expect the northerly winds to pick up. Minimum temperatures will drop, ”Sahu said.


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ABARES analyzes the effects of drought and climate variability on Australian farms

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Knowledge report provides analysis on the effects of climate variability on Australian crop and livestock farms. The report examines both short-term climate risks such as drought and long-term changes in climatic conditions.

ABARES Senior Economist Dr Neal Hughes said that an observed change to warmer and drier conditions during the period 2000 to 2019, compared to the period 1950 to 1999, had an effect negative on the profits of Australian farms and ranching.

“Average temperatures have risen by around one degree since 1950, while the past few decades have also seen a trend of declining precipitation in winter, particularly in southwest and southeast Australia,” Dr Hughes said.

“Controlling all other factors, we estimate that these changes reduced average farm profits by about 22%. These effects were most pronounced in the crop sector, reducing average profits by 35 percent, or $ 70,900 per year for a typical farm operation.

“Nationally, this equates to an average loss of field crop production of 8%, or about $ 1.1 billion per year.

“Although cattle farms have been less affected overall, some cattle breeding areas have been more affected than others, particularly southwest Queensland.”

Similar to previous research, this study finds evidence of adaptation, with farmers improving in handling dry conditions over time. Our results suggest that without this adaptation, the effects of post-2000 climate change would have been considerably greater, especially for farms.

“While recent trends in precipitation have been driven at least in part by climate change, there is still significant uncertainty about long-term future precipitation. The implications of climate change projections for agriculture are an important area for further work, ”said Dr Hughes.

ABARES Executive Director Dr Steve Hatfield-Dodds said this study provides solid quantitative analysis of the effects of climate variability and recent changes in seasonal conditions on Australian field crops and livestock farms.

“An analysis like this is complex because you have to take into account the many factors that affect farm profits, including seasonal conditions, prices of inputs and products, technology and management practices, and farm size. exploitation, ”said Dr Hatfield-Dodds.

“ABARES is only able to do this thanks to our long-term investments in high-quality agricultural survey data and our multi-year efforts to build the farmpredict model.”

“The results of this study have important implications for the agricultural sector, particularly for how farmers and governments respond to the risk of drought.

“Governments are faced with a dilemma, because helping farmers in times of drought risks slowing the adjustment and innovation of the industry in the long run.

“Adjustment, change and innovation are fundamental to improving agricultural productivity; maintain Australia’s competitiveness in world markets; and provide attractive and financially viable opportunities for farm households.

“Supporting struggling farm households is important, but for the long-term health of the sector, it must be done in a way that promotes resilience and productivity, and enables adjustment and change.

“The main options in this regard include research and development to improve the long-term resilience of farms to drought, including the further development of weather insurance markets.

“Insurance is an important area for further research, as it could offer farmers new options for managing climate risks. “

Source: ABARES. The latest ABARES Insights article, Analyzing the Effects of Drought and Climate Variability on Australian Farms, is available here.


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