Climate models

Corrective machine learning to improve climate models

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent articles written by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Advances in Earth System Modeling A new generation of global atmospheric models with 1-5 kilometer grid spacing can accurately simulate extreme weather conditions, such as heavy local rainfall from thunderstorm systems and flow through complex mountain ranges. They could also […]

Climate models

Visakhapatnam: Existing climate models need to be scaled down for better compatibility with hydrological datasets, says NGRI director

“A 1 cm rise in sea level can influence groundwater a few kilometers inland with seawater intrusion” “A 1 cm rise in sea level can influence groundwater a few kilometers inland with seawater intrusion” A two-day national seminar on hydrology, whose central theme was “Climate change and extreme hydrological events”, kicked off here on Friday. […]

Climate models

What are Earth System and Climate Models?

By US Department of Energy February 20, 2022 Earth system models and climate models are a complex integration of environmental variables used to understand our planet. Earth system models simulate how chemistry, biology, and physical forces work together. These models are similar to but much more comprehensive than global climate models. To understand Earth system […]

Climate change

Discrepancy between terrestrial and marine data resolved; shows that ice sheets are vulnerable to small fluctuations in carbon dioxide

New research from the University of Massachusetts Amherst definitively resolves a long-standing discrepancy in the geological record that pitted studies of marine ice sheet behavior against those that reconstructed past conditions on land. The research, recently published in the journal Geology, and funded by the National Science Foundation and the National Environment Research Council, lends […]

Climate models

Advanced ocean robots provide better global climate models

A team of researchers from the University of Gothenburg has deployed advanced ocean robots to conduct an international study of storm-watching above the waters around Antarctica. The study found that these storms cause outgassing of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and can help experts better understand climate change and develop better global climate models. Intense […]

Climate models

ESA will host a flagship office to coordinate global climate models

TAMPA, Fla. — The European Space Agency announced Feb. 9 plans to host an international office to coordinate global climate modeling efforts for at least five years. From March, the office of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), which is partly sponsored by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization, will be housed alongside ESA’s existing […]

Climate change

Climate change will deprive the oceans of precious oxygen

The emergence of deoxygenation is expected to be widespread in large areas of the oceans before 2080. Photo: Pixabay/joker When it comes to climate change, there is bad news and there is even worse news. Into this last category falls a new study in which scientists predict that more than two-thirds of the world’s oceans […]

Climate models

If the atmosphere is chaotic, how can we trust climate models?

Before they can understand how our planet’s climate is changing, scientists must first understand the basic principles of this complex system – the gears that turn Earth’s climate. You can create simple models with simple interactions, and that’s what happened in the first part of the 20th century. But from the 1950s and 1960s, researchers […]

Climate models

“Salad of nonsense words”: scientists denounce Jordan Peterson’s comments on climate models | Climate crisis

Prominent climate scientists have ridiculed and criticized controversial Canadian psychologist and author Jordan Peterson’s comments during an interview on Joe Rogan’s podcast. During a new four-hour interview on Spotify’s most popular podcast, Peterson – who is not an expert on climate change – claimed the models used to predict the state could not be trusted. […]

Climate change

Temperatures of the past 24,000 years find unprecedented global warming

The study reveals that greenhouse gas concentrations have been increasing since the last ice age. A University of Arizona study looked at Earth’s climate since the last Ice Age around 24,000 years ago, highlighting the main drivers of climate change and how far human activity has pushed the climate system out of bounds. The research […]

Climate change

Why tornadoes are the hardest disasters to link to climate change

After tornadoes hit six U.S. states late last week, killing at least 88 people and razing warehouses, nursing homes and factories, many were quick to blame global warming for at least part damage. Over the weekend, numerous media speculated that global warming may have played a role and lobbied policymakers for answers. Deanne Criswell, the […]

Climate models

Argonne scientists advance global climate models by embarking on two new field campaigns

Newswise – Campaign data will help improve the accuracy of weather and climate models. Climate projections suggest that rising global temperatures will increase the intensity of extreme weather conditions, such as droughts, hurricanes and heat waves. But when, where and how specifically these events will emerge is still uncertain. To better predict future changes, scientists […]

Climate models

ORNL at AGU: Making climate models smarter

Lexie yang Exploration of spatially distributed deep learning models for global gravitational mapping New approaches developed by scientists, including ORNL’s Lexie Yang, analyze massive datasets of large-scale satellite images to more accurately map infrastructure – such as buildings and roads – in hours rather than in hours. days. Comprehensive image data is useful for stakeholders […]

Climate models

Analysis underlying EU legislation – Do climate models support the Commission’s policy choices? – EURACTIV.com

EU law and practice mandate the use of impartial impact assessments to guide the formation of EU policies, including climate policies. They are supposed to synthesize the best costs, technologies and scientific information available. At the heart of climate-related impact assessments are model-based scenario quantification tools. PRIMES is the Commission’s modeling tool for the EU […]

Climate models

Defective climate models? The Arctic Ocean started to warm decades earlier than expected

An international group of researchers has pieced together the recent history of warming oceans at the gateway to the Arctic Ocean in a region called the Fram Strait, between Greenland and Svalbard, and found that the Arctic Ocean has been warming for a long time. longer than previous recordings suggested. Credit: Sara Giansiracusa The Arctic […]

Climate models

Climate models are becoming more and more critical: Aeolus

Insurance and reinsurance companies are naturally at the forefront of understanding climate change risk, and as the debate about climate and resilience intensifies around the world, climate models are becoming increasingly in addition, according to Aeolus Capital Management Ltd. Artemis, our sister site focused on Insurance Related Securities (ILS), recently hosted a live interview with […]

Climate models

Climate models indicate potential for La Niña rain

THE likelihood of above-average precipitation in northern and eastern Australia during the summer has increased, with the Bureau of Meteorology today declaring that a La Niña has developed in the Pacific Ocean . The office said La Niña is part of a cycle known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural change in ocean temperatures […]

Climate models

Aeolus Capital Management on the importance of climate models: Interview

For our latest Artemis Live video interview, we explored the importance of climate risk models in managing reinsurance and insurance-related securities (ILS) portfolios, with senior executives from Aeolus Capital Management.Aeolus Capital Management Ltd. is an investment fund manager specializing in reinsurance and retrocession that largely targets exposure to real estate catastrophes in its underwriting. As […]

Climate models

Climate models overlook benefits of ‘warming’ CO2, says statistician

Rather than relying on models of climate change that could be the basis for extensive and costly regulations, policymakers should instead question these models, focusing on the legitimacy of their underlying assumptions. That’s what the Heritage Foundation’s chief statistician said at a recent climate change conference in Las Vegas leading up to the international summit […]

Climate change

A new study explores the link between man-made climate change and the risk of forest fires. | Monterey County NOW Introduction

Christopher Neely here, thankful for the rain part of the county lived last night until this morning, and my fingers crossed that we can get through the end of the year without news of a local wildfire. Unfortunately, sometimes it feels like this is what it happened to– fingers crossed, hoping that human superstition can […]

Climate models

New NASA mission to study storms, impacts on climate models

Washington, November 8: NASA has selected a new Earth science mission that will study the behavior of tropical storms and thunderstorms, including their impacts on weather and climate models. The mission will be a collection of three SmallSats, flying in close coordination, called Investigation of Convective Updrafts (INCUS), and is expected to launch in 2027 […]

Climate models

NASA selects new mission to study storms and impacts on climate models

Huge cumulonimbus storm clouds are visible in this photo taken on August 15, 2014, looking east toward the Atlantic Ocean from the area of ​​Space Launch Complex 37 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Base (now the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station) in Florida. NASA has selected a new Earth science mission called Investigation of Convective […]

Climate models

NASA selects new mission to study storms and impacts on climate models

INCUS aims to directly explain why convection storms, heavy precipitation, and clouds occur exactly when and where they form. The survey stems from the 2017 Decennial Earth Sciences Survey of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, which presents ambitious but essential research and observation directions. “In a changing climate, more precise information about […]

Climate models

Researcher seeks to improve climate models for future water projections

October 27, 2021Commented by Alex Smith According to a broader scientific consensus, the western part of the United States will have less water and the northeastern United States will have more due to climate change. Flavio Lehner. Image credit: Cornell University. However, how much less and how much more is mostly uncertain, posing a critical […]

Climate change

DEEPICE: Network of young researchers to unveil past climate change in Antarctica

A network of international researchers is launching a European collaboration this week (October 14, 2021). This collaboration will train a new generation of scientists to understand the impact of past climate change on Antarctica The new innovative European research and training network “DEEPICE” aims to equip the next generation of scientists with a solid background […]

Climate change

Climate change: Need to review the US $ 100 billion climate finance commitment to developing countries

The unprecedented increase in climate-related disasters has led more than 13,000 scientists from 153 countries to sign a declaration of climate emergency, according to an article published in September 2021 in a leading biological science journal. The call for such severe action as the declaration of a climate emergency is justified by the Sixth Assessment […]

Climate models

Climate models cannot replicate the slowdown in global warming of the early 2000s – scientists explain why

A recent study led by Dr Wei and Dr Qiao of the First Institute of Oceanography at the Department of Natural Resources provides an assessment of the performance of recently published CMIP6 models to simulate the slowdown in global warming observed in the early 2000s. This study reveals that the key to simulating and predicting […]

Climate models

Climate Cast: University of Minnesota researchers use AI to improve climate models

Climate models all agree that the Earth will warm considerably this century. But predicting the precise magnitude of warming tells a lot more to climatologists about future extreme weather events and sea level rise. Now researchers at the University of Minnesota Twin Cities are part of a new $ 25 million climate modeling center funded […]

Climate change

Nobel Prize in Physics rewards work on climate change

Three scientists were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics on Tuesday for essential work in understanding how the Earth’s climate is changing, identifying the effect of human behavior on these changes and ultimately predicting the impact of global warming. The winners were Syukuro Manabe from Princeton University, Klaus Hasselmann from the Max Planck Institute for […]

Climate models

Nobel Prize in Physics rewards trio for contributions to climate models

Stockholm Three scientists on Tuesday won the Nobel Prize in Physics for work that brought order to apparent disorder, helping to explain and predict the complex forces of nature, including expanding our understanding of climate change. Syukuro Manabe, from Japan, and Klaus Hasselmann from Germany have been cited for their work in “physical modeling of […]

Climate change

Climate change: what ancient caves reveal about future New Zealand floods

Prehistoric deposits left in ancient New Zealand caves – like the Waipuna Cave in Waitomo – could help scientists better understand how precipitation changes as our climate warms. Photo / Supplied Scientists are looking to prehistoric clues left in New Zealand caves to predict how climate change will cause deluge in our warmer, wilder future. […]

Climate change

Winter in Philadelphia can be snowy and cold, even with climate change

A month-long snow blitz was underway in Philadelphia, with up to 4 feet building up in nearby suburbs. Texas, which has long suffered devastating and destructive hurricane damage, experienced an all-out disaster of a different kind, a cold snap that bypassed the state’s electricity grid and darkened millions of homes and companies. At one point, […]

Climate models

How scientists can predict the future: the importance of climate models

Part of a scientist’s duty in today’s disinformation environment is to persuade the public about how science works. Making precise and measured projections about the future is necessary to convince the public to believe in science. Is it possible to make accurate predictions about how the world will look 50 years from now? (Photo: Photo […]

Climate models

How Scientists Predict Climate Scenarios – Enter the World of Climate Models

The climate of our planet is an extremely complex subject. Of course, the underlying principles are simple, but incorporating the interaction between all the different elements is a very difficult task. To assess the situation on a large scale, researchers often turn to what are called climate models. A climate model is a quantitative simulation […]

Climate models

First, global climate models will be available through the cloud

Currently, climate modeling is only accessible to a privileged few. As computing has become more sophisticated in recent decades, financial and practical hurdles have made grasping the complexity of how climate change could impact Earth’s systems out of reach for most. researchers. However, one of the biggest companies in the world is trying to democratize […]

Climate models

Increased snowfall will offset sea level rise due to melting Antarctic ice sheet

The Jakobshavn Glacier, Greenland. Credit: Thomas Overly A new study predicts that any rise in sea level on the world’s southernmost continent will be countered by increased snowfall, coupled with a warmer polar atmosphere. Using modern methods to calculate projected changes in sea level, the researchers found that the two ice caps in Greenland and […]

Climate models

How Climate Models Work | FiveThirtyEight

Earlier this month, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released Part I of its latest Global Climate Assessment Report. The report draws on advanced climate modeling to illustrate to policymakers where global warming is heading. In this episode of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are […]

Climate models

How machine learning helps us refine climate models to unprecedented detail – GCN

How machine learning helps us refine climate models to unprecedented detail By Navid Constantinou August 18, 2021 From movie suggestions to autonomous vehicles, machine learning has revolutionized modern life. Experts are now using it to help solve one of humanity’s biggest problems – climate change. With machine learning, we can use our abundance of historical […]

Climate models

How machine learning helps us refine climate models to unprecedented detail

From movie suggestions to autonomous vehicles, machine learning has revolutionized modern life. Experts are now using it to help solve one of humanity’s biggest problems – climate change. Through machine learning, we can use our abundance of historical climate data and observations to improve predictions of the Earth’s future climate. And these forecasts will have […]

Climate models

Scientific flaws in IPCC climate models and concealment of problems in IPCC AR6 report

The strong positive shortwave radiation anomaly since 2001 The results of the temperature simulations of the IPCC and Ollila models Earth’s energy balance showing the magnitude of the greenhouse effect The IPCC climate models ignore the sharp increase in solar radiation since 2001. The IPCC tries to cover up the violation of the physical laws […]

Climate models

Yes, a few climate models give unexpected predictions, but technology remains a powerful tool

Credit: Shutterstock The long-awaited new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is due later today. Prior to publication, a debate erupted over the computer models at the heart of global climate projections. Climate models are one of the many tools that scientists use to understand how the climate has changed in the […]

Climate models

Yes, a few climate models give unexpected predictions – but technology remains a powerful tool

The long-awaited new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is due later today. Prior to publication, a debate erupted over the computer models at the heart of global climate projections. Climate models are one of the many tools that scientists use to understand how the climate has changed in the past and […]

Climate models

The CHEESEHEAD drone project could improve climate models

Source: Routescène What do Green Bay Packers and Forest Sweeping Drones have in common? Cheese heads. While Packer fans proudly identify with the dairy-infused moniker, a University of Wisconsin-Madison research project has adapted the name of a groundbreaking UAV project to improve weather forecasting by understanding how the vegetation and forests influence the atmosphere. CHEESEHEAD […]

Climate models

Need for post-economic growth climate models

Power plant. Steve Buissinne from Pixabay New climate models that challenge the assumption that rich countries can continue to pursue economic growth, while mitigating the impact of climate change, urgently need to be developed to help inform realistic public and policy debate. , say academics writing in the journal Natural energy. Academics are calling on […]

Climate models

Can we correct climate models to better predict record weather?

Through Adam vaughan Flooding in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Germany on July 15 FERDINAND MERZBACH / NEWS5 / AFP via Getty Images Record-breaking climate events, such as Canada’s highest temperature on record, surpassed by nearly 5 ° C last month, will be increasingly likely over the next few decades, new research suggests. It comes as the ability […]

Climate models

Climate models have predicted extreme weather fluctuations. Can the damage be reversed?

William Brangham: Scientists have linked extreme weather fluctuations, from heat waves to torrential rains, to climate change, and these extremes are not limited to Europe. Last month, ground temperatures in the Arctic Circle reached over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Much of the western United States is suffering from severe drought, which has provided tinder ready for […]

Climate variability

Climate variability leads to more intense thunderstorms • Earth.com

Climate variability leads to more intense thunderstorms In a new study by Texas A&M University, experts report that large thunderstorms in the southern Great Plains of the United States have increased in frequency and intensity. The researchers found that these changes are linked to climate variability. “Thunderstorms in the southern Great Plains of United States […]

Climate models

Which areas will climate change make uninhabitable? Climate models alone cannot tell

Which areas will climate change make uninhabitable? Climate models alone cannot tell by Radley Horton and Alex de Sherbinin |June 17, 2021 This Somali family left their village after a drought killed most of their livestock. As climate change exacerbates droughts and food shortages in some areas, many people may be forced to leave their […]

Climate models

Climate models can predict decadal precipitation v

image: Ensemble mean forecast anomalies averaged over forecast years 2 to 9 for summer precipitation over the Inner Tibetan Plateau. Red line: retrospectives; Blue line: near real-time predictions; Black line: observations. Shadows represent uncertainty. seen Following Credit: HU Shuai Summer precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau is highly predictable over multi-year timescales in large ensemble forecasts, […]

Climate models

A study assesses the performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating the slowdown in global warming

May 18, 2021 Led by Dr. Wei and Dr. Qiao of the First Institute of Oceanography of the Ministry of Natural Resources, a new study offers an evaluation of the performance of recently released CMIP6 models in simulating the deceleration of global warming seen in the early 2000s. Warming rate during the rapid warming period […]

Climate models

New Research Finds Climate Models Usually Do It Right

New climate research, conducted primarily in San Diego, reveals that a study of Earth’s temperatures during the last ice age confirms some widely held ideas about climate change. Lead author Alan Seltzer, a paleoclimatologist at the Wood’s Hole Institute of Oceanography, studied ancient water as a way to better understand never-before-recorded planetary temperatures. New Research […]

Climate models

Misuse of climate models may pose growing risk to financial markets, experts warn

Could climate change affect your business? According to the authors of an article in the United Kingdom, the misuse of climate models could pose a growing risk to financial markets. The report says that misuse of climate models can give investors a false sense of certainty about how the physical impacts of climate change will […]

Climate models

To improve climate models, international team turns to archaeological data – ScienceDaily

Climate modeling is forward-looking, its general intention to hypothesize what our planet might look like at a later date. Because Earth’s vegetation influences climate, climate models frequently include reconstructions of vegetation and are often validated by comparisons with the past. Yet such models tend to be oversimplified, obscuring or omitting how people affected the land […]

Climate models

To improve climate models, an international team turns to archaeological data

Climate modeling is forward-looking, its general intention to hypothesize what our planet might look like at a later date. Because Earth’s vegetation influences climate, climate models frequently include reconstructions of vegetation and are often validated by comparisons with the past. Yet such models tend to be oversimplified, obscuring or omitting how people affected the land […]

Climate models

Tibetan Plateau may warm faster in future than climate models predict

Apr 7, 2021 In recent decades, the Tibetan Plateau, called “the roof of the world”, has warmed faster than the world average. Projected future warming of the Tibetan plateau in the CMIP5 ensemble. The thick lines indicate the multi-model ensemble means, and the shadows indicate the 90% model intervals, derived from the raw model output. […]

Climate models

How to use climate models

The new report from the Australian Academy of Sciences, The risks for Australia of a 3 ° C hotter world, has grim predictions for the nation’s future under current carbon emissions policy and action. All of these predictions are based on climate models. Among the now familiar predictions of ecological and economic damage, the report […]

Climate models

New project to open years of atmospheric data, improve climate models

A Stanford researcher is leading a project to better understand gravity waves, tiny ripples that contribute to the global circulation of the atmosphere. Aditi Sheshadri The first step: estimate the amount of movement carried by gravity waves and make these new estimates available to the research community. And this is no small task. Since 2013, […]

Climate models

Argonne researchers improve climate models and climate change prediction

Newswise – Argonne’s new algorithm for capturing drizzle-turbulence interactions could improve predictions of future climate conditions. From space, large bridges of closely spaced stratocumulus clouds appear as brilliant cotton balls hovering above the ocean. They cover large areas – literally thousands of miles of subtropical ocean – and linger for weeks, if not months. Because […]

Climate models

New climate models with high climate sensitivity are not plausible

A recent analysis of the latest generation of climate models – known as CMIP6 – provides a caveat on interpreting climate simulations as scientists develop more sensitive and sophisticated projections of how the Earth will react to levels. increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Researchers from Princeton University and the University of Miami […]

Climate models

The high end of climate sensitivity in new climate models considered less plausible – ScienceDaily

A recent analysis of the latest generation of climate models – known as CMIP6 – provides a caveat on interpreting climate simulations as scientists develop more sensitive and sophisticated projections of how the Earth will react to levels. increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Researchers at Princeton University and the University of Miami […]

Climate models

The future of precipitation in the Alps

Credit: CC0 Public Domain Less intense average daily precipitation, more intense and localized extreme events. This is what the future climate scenarios for the Eastern Alps indicate, according to the study “Evaluation and Expected Changes of Summer Precipitation at Convection Permitting Scale with COSMO-CLM over Alpine Space”, published by the CMCC Foundation in the journal […]

Climate models

Scientists warn against misuse of climate models in financial markets

LONDON (Reuters) – The misuse of climate models could pose a growing risk to financial markets by giving investors a false sense of certainty about how the physical impacts of climate change will play out, article authors say published Monday. With heat waves, wildfires, massive storms and sea level rise set to intensify as the […]

Climate models

Antarctica is melting in a way our climate models never predicted, scientists say

The Antarctic ice sheet is not melting in the linear way our climate models predicted. Instead, a more detailed model shows that as the rate of ice loss at the South Pole accelerates rapidly, there is snowfall and brief respite from melting along the way. “The ice sheet doesn’t change at a constant rate – […]

Climate models

Gavin Schmidt: The problem with climate models? People.

Gavin Schmidt says there is nothing wrong with climate models – in fact, “they did a pretty good job of predicting what happened.” One of the reasons they’re not more specific, he says, is the people. Dr Schmidt is the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and one of the nation’s top climatologists. […]

Climate models

University of Wyoming researchers modify climate patterns from the air

Wildfire research has become increasingly important in recent years as climate change has made fires more frequent and intense. But smoke from wildfires could have a bigger effect on the climate than previously thought. Wyoming Public Radio’s Ivy Engel spoke with Shane Murphy, a University of Wyoming researcher who has studied the smoke inside plumes. […]

Climate models

Soaring through smoke could change weather patterns

As wildfires become more frequent and intense, it becomes essential to understand how they affect the climate. And according to recently accepted data from researchers at the University of Wyoming (UW), climate models that have been used for years likely had significant problems with them. “One of our graduate students has just been accepted for […]

Climate models

Latest climate models should not increase projections of future warming

A notable scenario in the climate system over the past two years has been the effort to make sense of the latest generation of climate models. In support of the upcoming report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate models have submitted their simulations to the latest database, known as CMIP6. These […]

Climate models

What COVID forecasters can learn from climate models

A second national lockdown began in England on November 5.Credit: Hollie Adams / AFP / Getty Epidemiologists predicting the spread of COVID-19 should adopt climate modeling methods to make predictions more reliable, say computer scientists who have spent months auditing one of the pandemic’s most influential models. In a study that was uploaded to the […]

Climate models

The past is the key to predicting the future climate – Models should be tested by simulating past climates

Past carbon dioxide concentrations (left) versus possible future emission scenarios (right): the rate of current emissions is much faster – occurring over decades – unlike geological changes, which occur over millions of years. If emissions continue unabated, carbon dioxide levels could reach or exceed values ​​associated with warm climates of the past, such as the […]

Climate models

Polar ice, atmospheric water vapor, the main drivers of variation among climate models

Credit: CC0 Public Domain A Florida State University researcher is part of a team that found that various projections of global warming trends advanced by climate change scientists can be explained by the models’ different predictions of ice loss and vapor. atmospheric water. The work will help climatologists reconcile various models to improve their accuracy, […]

Climate models

Clouds could be the missing link in climate models

Scientists have been trying to figure out why the latest generation of climate models predict a much hotter future than previously thought. The main culprit could be clouds, according to a new article published on June 24 in Scientists progress (1). Every few years, a more advanced generation of climate models emerges. In the latest […]

Climate models

Increased warming in latest generation of climate models likely caused by clouds

Credit: CC0 Public Domain As scientists scramble to determine why some of the latest climate models suggest the future may be hotter than previously thought, a new study says the reason is likely related to challenges simulating training and cloud evolution. The new research, published in Scientists progress, provides an overview of 39 updated models […]

Climate models

New representations of clouds make models more sensitive to carbon dioxide

As scientists work to determine why some of the latest climate models suggest the future could be warmer than previously thought, a new study indicates the reason is likely to be linked to challenges simulating the formation and l evolution of clouds. The new research, published in Scientists progress, provides an overview of 39 updated […]

Climate variability

Is climate variability organized? – Eos

One fascinating aspect of the climate system is that its variability is governed by simple mathematical relationships. A recent paper in Geophysics Reviews explains how these mathematical relationships — in the form of power laws– structure a large part of climate variability in terms of time, space and intensity. Understanding how climate variability is structured […]

Climate models

Latest climate models show more intense droughts to come

The Maranoa River south of Mitchell, Queensland during the 2017 drought. Credit: Chris Fithall (Flickr Creative Commons CC BY 2.0) An analysis of new climate model projections by Australian researchers at the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes shows South West Australia and parts of South Australia will experience longer and more intense droughts […]

Climate models

How hot will it be this century? The latest climate models suggest it could be worse than we thought

Climatologists use mathematical models to project Earth’s future in a warming world, but a group of latest models included surprisingly high values ​​for a measure called “climate sensitivity.” Climate sensitivity refers to the relationship between changes in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and warming. High values ​​are a bad surprise. If they’re right, that means […]

Climate models

Cold air is rising – How wrong are our global climate models?

This graph illustrates the buoyancy effect of vapor, in which cold, moist air rises because it is lighter than dry air. Credit: Da Yang/UC Davis The lightness of water vapor dampens global warming in the tropics. Conventional knowledge holds that warm air rises while cold air sinks. But a study from the University of California, […]

Climate models

The latest climate models have unrealistic projections of future warming

A new study by climatologists at the University of Michigan concludes that some of the latest generation climate models may be overly sensitive to increases in carbon dioxide and therefore project unrealistic future warming. In a letter scheduled for publication April 30 in the journal Natural climate changethe researchers say projections from one of the […]